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Swine flu/economy update/Afghanistan

19 September 2009

Hi all –

As promised I want to discuss Afghanistan, and while I'm on difficult issues I thought I'd also return to the question of the economy with an update and a discussion of public spending and cuts. First, though, two local political things and one non-political one:

1. The current Positive Politics.

This is my intermittent newsletter to all constituents. For reasons I've discussed here before, I can't afford to post it to everyone, so I am dependent on volunteer help. If you're not already helping and would be willing to spend a few hours on this, please let me know as it's really important that I get the chance to stay in touch. You can see it on screen here: http://www.broxtowelabour.org/ (click on the "Positive Politics" banner in mid-page and it will come up).

2. The Toton by-election

If you live in the ward, you should by now have had a letter from me (or you soon will) putting the case for Atul Joshi, the Labour candidate. The starting position is that it's a safe Tory seat (easily their safest in Broxtowe, in fact); Labour and the LibDems have both been 2nd and 3rd in recent years with the LibDems ahead of us last time; the BNP are 4th, and they hope to pick up votes from UKIP (who aren't standing this time) and overtake us, which would be a depressing outcome.

Atul is an energetic local businessman, standing in a ward where I think some more councillor energy would be a good thing: the current councillors are perfectly nice people, but the obvious local issues (traffic, pavements, ASB, housing, travellers) aren't being addressed with any urgency that I can detect. It would be a good thing if the generally complacent air were shaken up a bit, and I hope you'll give Atul your vote.

3. Swine flu preparations

Two constituents rang me last week to say they were stuck at home, both with swine flu, and nobody they knew who could get them the antiviral medicine from the nearest collection point: what should they do? I popped round to them, got the form and picked up the medicine for them, but as that's not something I can always do I wanted to encourage you to set up a reciprocal agreement with a friend or acquaintance to help each other if it arises – although it's really died down for now, everyone expects some resurgence in the winter. The procedure's quite straightforward and the distribution centre were very helpful when I took the couple's form, but without someone to do it if the need arises there would be a real problem.

4. The economy

I've been trying to advise on this through the credit crunch, and you can check my track record on this here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/503 (July) and

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/475 (January).

The January update discusses how the crisis arose, and the July one advises on the outlook – I think the information there remains valid. The July update also anticipated the discussion of public spending reductions which has suddenly become every party leader's favourite issue, to the point that we're getting a sort of auction for who can sound fiercest, without boring us with the details of what they'd actually do.

There are essentially two issues here. First, how soon the deficit should be curbed. It's obvious that it's currently helping the economy turn the corner, and equally obvious that it can't continue forever. The sooner we start cutting back:

(a) the sooner we make inroads into the debt (or at least stop making it worse) but

(b) the more we risk the recovery (and if the recovery fails, debt will worsen again anyway as production and taxation revenue will slump back).

The argument divides the Government (which believes we should ease back next year and cut it seriously in 2011) from the Conservatives (who believe we should have already cut back this year). The experience of the 1930s and the 1980s does suggest that cutting too soon is very dangerous, and virtually all Governments have come to a similar conclusion to Britain's that it's necessary to run a large deficit this year. (I think the Conservatives are being a bit cynical in saying that because the government agrees that cuts will be needed in the future, that proves they were right to call for them during the worst of the crisis.)

Whether one agrees or not, that issue is going to be water under the bridge shortly, since everyone agrees we need to throttle back next year – for instance, the campaign by retailers to extend the VAT cut past January 1 is clearly going to be rejected as unaffordable. The more important question is what we should scale back on when the economy recovers.

In my July update, I suggested some concrete things: briefly, stopping new projects, reconsidering Trident, ID cards, and our wider defence stance, slowing the renewal of new infrastructure (motorways, rail electrifications, etc.) and raising taxation in the £50,000+ bracket (something some of you strongly disagreed with). Quite a few of you suggested tackling public sector pension schemes: I'd be in favour of reviewing how expensive these actually are, and I suspect that some of them do look too generous in current conditions (yes, including the MPs' scheme). I wouldn't support sudden retrospective change: it's not fair to mess up people's retirement planning just before they retire.

The big debate that I think is lurking around the corner is means-testing of all benefits. The benefits system is quite erratic in this: some things like Housing Benefit are only available if you're more or less destitute, others like Child Tax Credit are given to everyone into the middle or even higher income groups, and some like the Winter Fuel Allowance are given to everyone in the relevant age group.

The argument for no means testing *at all* is that it's hugely beneficial to take-up – virtually every pensioner happily accepts the fuel allowance and the bus pass since they know they're for everyone, so there's no `stigma' attached. The other snag about means testing is that it penalises you harshly if you increase your income – you can end up with an effective marginal tax rate near 100%, since your extra income is balanced by the benefits that you lose.

On the other hand, universal benefits undoubtedly spread the available money more thinly. My own view is that there is a particular problem in persuading pensioners to accept help, so we shouldn't start imposing new means-testing on them, but that where means-testing already exists, there's scope for focusing it much more on the poorest families (which, to be blunt, would mean that child tax credit would stop being paid to people on higher incomes).

Finally, we need to look at what the parties are proposing on public services. I'm surprised how little attention there's been to the Conservative announcement that they'll abolish the service levels (`targets') that NHS managers have to reach (e.g. no more than two weeks' delay for cancer treatment or 18 weeks for other operations; no more than 4 hours waiting in A&E, etc.). They say they'd like to leave it to the managers, which sounds good at first. However, coupled with a squeeze on spending what are the managers going to do? They won't sack themselves, will they? They'll lay off staff and let the service levels slide back. It would undoubtedly save significant money, but it would also change the NHS markedly for the worse, and that deserves a proper debate before, nort after, people decide how to vote.

I also feel very strongly that we need a *complete* list of changes from each party that we can examine and add up. There's scope for legitimate debate on how quickly to reduce the deficit once the economy recovers, but the current pseudo-debate is doing nobody any favours. Each party is trying `bravely' to identify a few things they'd cut, but postponing maternity leave improvements (Labour), making food in the House of Commons more expensive (Conservatives) or not abolishing tuition fees (LibDems) is not addressing the issue seriously. It's perfectly clear that more significant economies will be needed, and I think there would be electoral benefits for the first party to treat everyone like adults and spell them out with a costed bottom line. Don't you?

5. Afghanistan

I discussed the reasons for the anti-Taliban effort here

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/502

but after more recent discussions I wanted to add some further thoughts for your consideration.

First, we really need to focus on the purpose of the mission. It's to stop a regime regaining power which openly favours and assists terrorism around the world; in particular, it's to stop that infecting the neighbouring government in Pakistan, with their nuclear arms. During the summer I had an extensive discussion with a specialist in the area, and the advice was that Pakistan's government is too weak to resist a militant regime in Afghanistan: they would feel the need to cooperate with them and would eventually be drawn into the same orbit. The endpoint of that could be nuclear weapons fired on Mumbai or further afield.

What the mission is not, however, is a host of other things. It's not about stopping the drugs trade, stamping out corruption, promoting trade, keeping anyone in particular in power, or killing/capturing every last Taliban supporter. All these things might be desirable and useful, but if they conflict with the main objective (for instance, the former American idea of destroying the poppy fields, even if it drove the farmers into the arms of the Taliban), the main objective takes priority. And if we can do deals with some Taliban supporters that stop short of giving them power, that's fine.

I also feel strongly that we need to cap our involvement. The normal British stance is that we can maintain one brigade on active missions abroad at any one time, with another for short-term reinforcement. At present, we have two brigades fully engaged, and there's pressure for more. This leads to erosion of our capability (one of the reasons for the equipment problems is that we've reinforced with more troops than we expected to need), and it's too much to ask of us as a middle-sized European power. We should give notice to our allies that we intend to return to one brigade by next summer. (It'll save money, too.)

As always, I don't expect agreement on everything and feedback is welcome! And if you can help at all with my newsletter delivery that'll be wonderful.

Best wishes

Nick

Coming debate/travellers law proposal/round-up of events

19 August 2009

Hi all –

This is a round-up of pending items as I'm away from tomorrow till September 1, and I also want to run past you a proposal I'm considering for a change in the law on travellers.

I'll be checking email from time to time but the general idea is to recharge batteries and do non-political stuff, so I may skip reading anything that doesn't look very urgent – if you're in trouble and it's vital that I read about it quickly, please put URGENT in the title.

1. Is British politics broken? debate

After a pause I'm returning to the series of "eat'n'debate" discussion meals. The formula that proved very successful was that I'd host a discussion on a current theme over a meal in a local restaurant. The normal cost to take part is £20, of which half goes to the restaurant for a two-course meal and half goes to my campaign fund to help me put my case on a level playing field with my better-funded competition. I've provisionally earmarked lunchtime on September 19, for a discussion on

"Is British politics broken?"

I'll argue the case that it's difficult to get honest discussion in British politics, to a much great extent than in other countries where I've lived, and the reasons why that is and what we can do about it. I'll introduce it and then it'll be over to you – the basic attraction is that you can eat as much as you like (it's normally a buffet with a choice of hot dishes) and debate as much as you like, or just listen. If the £20 cost is a barrier, a generous constituent who is keen to encourage these discussions has offered to help out – she'll pay the difference from whatever you can afford.

2. Dallas in Moorgreen?

Residents near Moorgreen and the edges of Kimberley and Watnall may have been surprised to see survey work being done for what appeared to be a company specialising in oil exploration. I thought that people might want to know what was happening, and in fact it's exactly that – Low New Biggin Oil Ltd thinks there might be some oil in the area and has commissioned some exploratory investigation in soil samples. Before anyone gets excited or alarmed, though, I should add that this sort of survey is very common around the country, especially near the old coalfields, and the probability that JW Ewing and friends will be arriving any time soon is very small. I'll keep an eye on developments and report back.

3. Housing development consultation – what happens next?

After I wrote to people in the potentially affected areas about this the very low response rate quintupled and the council now has substantial feedback which it will reflect upon. The next stage will be a recommendation from the council about which areas it is thinking of earmarking for possible development in the period 2011-2026: this will be a further consultation document, and it's expected around January. I'll report further when I've seen it. We'll then have another chance to object if we disagree with any of it, and it will be finalised late in 2010.

I'll just run through the process again for those of you who are new to the issue. After the *potentially* suitable sites have been identified, developers could propose housing developments there, any time up to 2026 – in the current climate with the housing market just starting to recover, probably not, but it could look quite different in 2013 or 2017, etc. It will still be possible to oppose specific projects, but as a result of the current exercise, they'll know that the council doesn't consider the site as out of the question in principle.

The basic idea is to avoid wasting time and causing unnecessary alarm with projects that clearly aren't acceptable – the upside of the process is that all areas which the council decides are unsuitable will be protected up to 2026, failing some unforeseeable rethink. If an area is approved in principle, that doesn't, of course, mean that anything will happen in practice – it depends whether anyone wants to do a new development there and whether the council at that time (say in 2020) thinks it's needed.

4. Travellers – a proposal for discussion

We've had a particularly large number of incursions from groups of travellers recently, on sites in Beeston, Toton and Nuthall, and apart from fire-fighting by alerting the council and landowners as soon as they're reported to me, I've been looking into the law about this and I'm thinking of proposing a change in the law and wanted to consult you about it.

First, I'll try to state the current position objectively as there's a lot of emotion attached to the issue and the reality isn't always clear.

• There is a traditional lifestyle associated with the Romany (gypsy) culture of people who live in caravans and roam around freely, doing small jobs and selling handicrafts in one place before moving on. While there are concerns about the educational prospects of children who grow up in that tradition, as well as doubts whether the adults are always entirely within the law (e.g. on payment of tax), this is regarded as a legitimate and indeed colourful tradition, and the history of persecution of gypsies (Hitler murdered them in large numbers) has made people wary of knee-jerk prejudices.

• However, very few groups of travellers are actually anything to do with gypsies. Nearly all the recent groups in our area have been associated with very serious pollution of the sites (massive litter, human waste and so on) as well as very persistent reports of theft and other unpleasant behaviour. I don't think that concern about persecution of legitimate travellers should lead us to have illusions about this: it's a bad thing, it causes lots of innocent people grief, and it gives the whole tradition a bad name.

• In the past, all counties were expected to maintain official caravan sites where travellers would be welcome: these have water supplies, toilet facilities, and so on, and are not usually very close to residential areas. That requirement was abolished by the last government, and has not been reinstated by the current one. As a result, councils maintain fewer sites, and there are gaps between authorised sites which make it difficult even for legitimate groups to find somewhere to stop on the way.

• A perverse effect of the "Englishman' s home is his castle" rule is that the police are not allowed simply to evict people from your land – in theory, you might have invited them to stay, and there is in fact one local case of a landowner who doesn't seem to care. The law requires that either (a) the landowner goes to court to prove that he didn't authorise it and get an eviction order or (b) the council takes action against indifferent landowners for `maintaining an illegal campsite'.

The trouble with this is that it's expensive (an eviction order means several thousand pounds in legal costs, rarely recoverable from the travellers as the market for battered caravans is limited) and above all slow – typically a week or so. The rogue groups know that and operate accordingly, staying until the eviction order arrives and then moving on.

This isn't common sense, is it? Of course it's possible that you might have organised a caravan festival and invited loads of people to come and stay, but it's not very likely. So my proposal would be that any group of more than say two caravans on one site that isn't a caravan park would need to produce written authority from the landowner showing that they had a right to be there; otherwise, the police would be allowed to evict without further ado. To balance that, I'd reinstate the requirement that each county maintains an adequate network of official sites, sufficient to allow travel from one to the next within one day.

That would be fair to the groups (whether gypsies or just ordinary roaming folks) who want to live an itinerant lifestyle but have no wish to break the law, and it would make the current abuses impractical. What do you think?

5. HMRC workshops for the self-employed

A constituent, Gerarde Nixon, has let me know about free HMRC workshops for people becoming newly self-employed or considering becoming/having to become VAT registered. The VAT workshops are currently run regularly (monthly) at Castle Meadow, Nottingham. Gerard's less sure how often the Self-Employment and Self Assessment courses run, but they are regular. He says "The format is informal, and 99% of the delegates attending leave with a little bit more useful knowledge than they arrived with - at least their feedback forms always say so!!" You can email him on gerarde.p.nixon@hmrc.gsi.gov.uk and the web page is http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/bst/work.htm .

6. What's On

Saturday 29th August
10.00am till 3pm
Transition West Bridgford renewable energy show in Central Avenue West. The Energy Savings Trust, the Marches Energy `Everyone's talking about Climate Change' van and several local companies that install domestic renewable energy and insulation will all have a presence, and no doubt many others. Details www.transitionnottingham.org.uk/energyexpo

Saturday 5th September
Stapleford carnival – parade through the town and then lots of stands on the fields near the Jaguar all afternoon.

Sunday 13th September
9am to 1pm
Chilwell School, Queens' Road West
Outdoor Car Boot Sale (weather permitting)
Entrance fee – donations to Chilwell School Partnership
(Set up from 7.30am – no need to book
Cars £5, vans £7.50)

Sunday 13th September
7.30pm
Paradiso Cinema presents:
The Reader
Kate Winslet stars in a film that dares to ask whether a war criminal deserves compassion.
Chilwell Arts Theatre, Chilwell School
Tickets on the door
£4.50, £3 (conc)

Friday 18th September
7.30pm
Village Ventures presents:
Melissa Western:
Ella, Marilyn, Marlene & Me
Australian jazz singer and actor Melissa Western whirls through the glamorous and tragic lives of three icons of the Twentieth century.
Chilwell Arts Theatre, Chilwell School
Tickets from the school on 0115 925 2698 or 07827 996 223
£7, £5 (conc), £22 family (2 adults + 2 children)

Saturday 19th September
Probably the eat'n'debate lunch – see above.

And that's it from me until I'm back – and probably a few days after that as there will be zillions of letter and emails to catch up with first.

Best regards

Nick

Remembrance of local soldier

17 August 2009

Hello all -

I wanted to let you know, in case you've not previously heard, that Rylands Methodist Church will be open for up for reflection tomorrow Tuesday August 18 around the time of Sean Upton's funeral in Catterick, from 1230pm to 2pm. Sean was a soldier recently killed in the Afghanistan conflict with only 8 days left to serve in the army. His mother is a member of the church at Rylands and he grew up in Rylands, so they are opening the Church to allow friends, neighbours, fellow 'Rylanders' to pay their respects to this brave man.

I've some other updates but I'll write separately about those and let this one stand by itself.

Best wishes

Nick

Swine flu: how prepared are we locally?/economy review

27 July 2009

Hi all –

I see the press are saying MPs have buzzed off on an 82-day holiday, so maybe the first thing to say is that I’m here. I plan to spend a week or so visiting family at the end of August – they’re strung along the south coast so I thought an old-fashioned motoring holiday might be nice. Apart from that, I’m available as usual, and surgeries continue in August. Thanks to all the offers of help in the run-up to the General election – I’m overwhelmed by all the encouraging messages, such as Professor David Kendall’s:

"In other constituencies I'd consider voting Liberal Democrat or Green, but in Broxtowe the only realistic outcome is that Nick Palmer holds the seat or is replaced by the Conservative candidate. I think that those of us who care about progressive politics and respect his work should rally behind him. If we just vote for party tickets and don't support good MPs when they need it, we shouldn't complain if Parliament doesn't meet our expectations. "

This email is going to focus on practical advice on swine flu and the economic outlook, and I’d also like to consult further on public spending and taxation.

1. Swine flu

I thought it might be helpful to update you on the current position. Basically we do have to anticipate unusually widespread infection in the coming months, but unless the illness mutates it seems actually as or more benign than many of the flu strains that hit Britain every winter. The job of the Government is to ensure that patients who are vulnerable know what to do and are given calm advice and rapid help, without over-reacting in some of the ways that have been suggested (e.g. closing all schools).

The National Pandemic Flu Service is a new self-care service comprising a dedicated website (www.direct. gov.uk/pandemicf lu) and phoneline (0800 1 513 100 or 0800 1 513 200 (Textphone)) . It will allow people to check their symptoms and, if necessary, get a unique number which will give them access to anti-virals at a local collection point. It is intended to free up GPs so that they can focus their efforts on helping those in at-risk groups and patients with other illnesses. However, people with serious underlying health conditions, pregnant women, and parents with children under the age of one should still contact their GP if they have swine flu symptoms. A snag here is the limited GP cover at weekends. If you are do have an aggravating condition and think you’ve got swine flu, and find your GP’s number is diverted to a telephone service, don’t just wait for Monday – discuss it with the helpline, get a friend to pick up the anti-viral medication and if you have serious symptoms, press NHS Direct to get someone to come out, as they will if the symptoms are sufficiently worrying.

East Midlands NHS are sending me weekly updates. In the most recent week for which figures are available, consultations for influenza-like illness were at the rate of 1 person in 400 across the region. Currently, local trusts are not reporting any significant impact on services. It is important to stress that in the vast majority of cases, the symptoms of swine flu are so mild that only over-the-counter remedies, fluids, rest and reassurance are needed. For those people diagnosed as needing additional medication, collection points have been set up across the region so that a ‘Flu Friend’ can collect the medication, without those feeling unwell having to leave their home. All of these collection points are linked to the National Pandemic Flu Service. I’ve been asked not to publish the locations so that patients who need the medication don’t run into chaotic queues if the illness should spread more rapidly, but I can confirm that there are several locations in Nottingham. I’m asking for an additional one in Broxtowe.

Across the region, 146 admissions to hospitals during the previous week have been recorded as possibly swine flu-related. These admissions may not have been caused by swine flu, but by other health concerns. Ordinary seasonal flu plays a contributing factor in a number of deaths each year. Any case where swine flu is suspected to have played a contributing factor in the death of an individual is investigated. In the East Midlands there are two patients suspected to have died from swine flu so far.

The Government ordered massive stocks of the medication in good time, so there’s going to be enough for the entire population if needed – thus don’t order via the Internet (which might get you something dodgy) or feel you must stock up for fear it might run out. A vaccination is in the final stages of preparation, and a decision will be needed in September whether to start using it: the case for doing so is that we could inoculate people who come into contact with many vulnerable people (such as nurses); the case against is that it would really be better to do more controlled trials for a few months to ensure it doesn’t have side-effects, and then inoculate at the end of the year before the cold weather aggravates things. There is always a risk of people being panicked by sensationalist media coverage, or alternatively dismissing it all as something that won’t happen to them; the reality is that it’s a serious issue but for most people not dangerous, and on this occasion we do seem particularly well-prepared.

2. Economy update

I’ve commented at earlier points in the credit crunch here, in particular in a big January update. If you’re curious to see if I got it right you can read it here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/475

A new update may be useful. The bottom in the housing market that I predicted in January does seem to have happened: the market watch provided by

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/market/NG9/and http://www.zoopla.co.uk/market/NG16/

show that prices in the 6 months since then have fallen just 1-2%. Locally, I’ve been helping some medium-sized employers talk to banks and the Inland Revenue and although it’s been a near thing in several cases, we seem to have avoided any major collapses so far. There have, however, been substantial layoffs here as elsewhere.

What’s the outlook? We seem to be in the classic later stage of a recession, where firms begin to restock inventories (the big car firms that had temporary layoffs are now mostly back at work), stock markets begin to rise, but unemployment continues to go up as firms that were counting on a faster upturn finally succumb. Export industries have been hard-hit by falling demand around the world, but European purchasing levels are now levelling out and should start to rise in the next three months. The number claiming unemployment benefit is rising much more slowly than expected, possibly because some of the layoffs are affecting non-British EU immigrants (who aren’t generally entitled to benefits), but I do expect it to keep rising until the second quarter of 2010, when the economy should be picking up speed. A large number of firms and individuals are now getting help from the various Government schemes to see them through the recession (though there are still problems in the interest on business loans – see below), and if you run into difficulty let me know and I can supply an overview of these.
While I can’t advise on individual situations, my general advice at this point is:
• It’s now reasonable to go back into the housing market without expecting any massive changes in current prices.

• Be wary of accepting voluntary redundancy at this point: the job market is going to keep getting more difficult for another year before it turns.

• Don’t count on interest rates being as low as now for more than another 6-12 months. Building societies are starting to phase out the low fixed-rate deals, and it’s unwise to take a loan or variable mortgage on the assumption that rates will stay low for years. Conversely, if you’re dependent on savings interest, the current drought should start to ease next year.

• If you’re running a business, plan on the basis that current overall demand is unlikely to get significantly worse, and by next year it should start to pick up significantly. Obviously that doesn’t mean that every individual business will see increased sales

• If you work in the NHS, your job should be safe for the foreseeable future. I’ve had detailed discussions with local NHS management – the budget is firmly in the black. They are budgeting on the assumption of a real-terms freeze from 2011 and expect to be able to maintain recent improvements, avoid cutbacks, and have a reserve for the unexpected like swine flu. Schools are also generally in reasonable financial shape, though they are having to manage declining pupil numbers in most areas.

• If you work for local councils, the outlook is more uncertain. The new regime at County is ruling very little out and is talking of ‘limiting their services to the front door’, which potentially must mean cuts in help in the home.

I hope that the advice is useful. Turning to policy issues:

3. Economic policy controversies

You’ll have seen there’s a controversy over the level of interest being charged to businesses by the rescued banks: the Chancellor is seeing the banks about it today.

What’s the banks’ case? They say they’re being required by the Government to keep much large capital reserves during the crisis, which reduces their potential loan and investment income, and also that many businesses have a higher risk in a recession, so the banks need to charge more to cover the danger of default.

The Government’s case is that the banks have had all the help they can reasonably expect from the taxpayer and have given a written commitment to maintain the level of credit to British businesses in return; that’s of limited value if they charge up to 10% on the loans.

I expect the outcome of this to be some reduction in the loan rates, especially in the nationalised banks, but it’s a tricky balancing act - as with mortgages we need to be careful not to push the bank back into high-risk speculation.

The next step will be unwinding the support measures, since emergency support for the economy has been essential (in my opinion the Conservatives were simply wrong on this) but it can’t turn into permanent subsidy. The stamp duty waiver on cheaper houses will come to an end, and so will the cut in VAT. The point about that was always that it boosted firms’ and individuals total cashflow (not that we rushed out to buy a particular item because of the 2.5% cut, but simply that we were paying less tax so had more money to spend at the end of the month). It’s a major reason why we’ve not seen any major retail disasters except Woolworths. However, it’s a subsidy from taxpayers to the economy and the current calls from industry to continue it after January are unrealistic.

Beyond that, we have the whole debate on public spending and taxation. I’ve passed on the feedback that you gave me in the poll on the least painful reductions in discussions with senior ministers. The current public debate is really unhelpful – all parties including my own are saying the others would make terrible cuts, denying that they’d do anything very painful themselves, and even demanding that other parties commit to spending increases for diverse worthy causes. We shouldn’t exaggerate the hole in public finances – it’s a significantly smaller proportion of GDP than the American deficit, for instance – but there is of course a hole and it will need to be plugged with serious measures. What I’m recommending to colleagues, on the basis of your feedback and thinking it through myself, is:

(a) Stop digging! There are no end of things it’d be nice to spend more on, from more school buildings to new road surfaces to defence. I’ve decided not to support any of them (that is, I’m politely declining *all* the requests to sign motions demanding that the Government spend more on something, including public sector pay rises this year) for the current six months, and probably for longer. That doesn’t mean we can’t spend more on one thing if we spend less on something else – see the defence discussion below.

(b) Bring forward a defence review that focuses on current essentials. We can’t afford to be a global superpower and we should stop trying to be one on the cheap. That means cutting back by negotiating away Trident (cost around £24 billion) in exchange for Russian missile cuts and scaling back on our ability to intervene anywhere on the globe (which will mean reductions in naval and air force spending – expect real controversy over that). On the other hand, it’s reasonable that we should want to help the UN and NATO in operations to prevent terrorists gaining control of counties, since that would threaten security both for the UK and elsewhere, and that means that some of the money saved should go on the very best equipment for ground forces. The current controversy over helicopters is an example: we were well-equipped for combat in the Afghan plains, but the coalition decision to move into the Taliban strongholds in the mountains has left us scrambling to adjust, and we should have a reserve for all contingencies when we get involved.

(c) Slow down investment in new infrastructure. An enormous amount has been spent on new schools, hospitals, motorways and rail links in the last decade. That’s good, but we need a breathing space. I wouldn’t impose a total freeze (not least as we need to maintain skills and jobs in construction) , but a slowdown is reasonable.

(d) Increase taxation to 45p over for incomes over £50,000. This isn’t some sort of class warfare – I’ve been in this earning bracket for the last 30 years myself. It’s simply a recognition that we need to increase income as well as reduce expenditure, and people in this bracket can afford it better. Also, I hate to say it, but I think we shouldn’t treat at the standard rate as something that only goes down – it’s been cut twice in the last few years and is now one of the lowest in Europe. I’ve never met anyone who thought the reduction had meant a tremendous amount to them. Would it be the end of the world if it went back up to 21p or even 22p, at least for the higher end of the standard range?

What *wouldn’t* I do?

• I’d be against scrapping the changes that have brought child and pensioner poverty down – I think the Winter Fuel Allowance should be protected, as should the Pension Credit minimum income guarantee. It wasn’t a myth that pensioners used to have to choose between adequate food and adequate heating, and we just don’t want to go back to that.

• I wouldn’t touch the NHS (which all parties promise to protect) or community policing (which parties are notably silent about) – we’ve laboriously built them up to current levels, and we should let them slide back.

• Surestart and current education budgets should be defended – one of the best things the Government has done is improve childcare in tough areas, since there is ample evidence that poor early years lead to health and behavioural problems later, and good early years unlock talents that otherwise never get discovered at all – which is something that would hurt all of us, since that home-grown talent is exactly what we need in the decades to come.

As always, feedback welcome. There’s nothing inviolable about my opinions and I’ll listen to any suggestions. But we badly need an honest debate, and if the national parties won’t have one, let’s at least have it locally.

4. Local events

August 8-9: the Nottingham and Notts Fuchsia Society are holding their annual show at Attenborough Village Hall. The colourful show with many unusual varieties is open to the public, after judging, from 1.30 - 5.00pm on Saturday and 9.00am to 4.00pm on Sunday. Admittance is £1.00. Tombolas, plant sales, cake stall and refreshments are available.

Saturday August 22: The National Children’s Orchestra of Great Britain's is giving its first-ever Nottingham concert at the Royal Concert Hall in the city, with a West Side Story emphasis. The orchestra is nationally-acclaime d and has an interesting social background. It runs five age-graded orchestras drawn from children across Great Britain without regard to financial means, offering bursaries and even providing high-quality instruments to those in need. It also runs outreach courses giving children from non-musical backgrounds opportunities to experience playing music for the first time. Admission starts at £10 (children £5). Details are here: http://www.royalcentre-nottingham.co.uk/default.asp?id=363

Best wishes

Nick

County lets tram go ahead/why Afghanistan?/mobile phones/council estates

10 July 2009

Hi all -

1. County gives tram go-ahead

As foreshadowed on the night of the County election, the new Conservative council administration has now dropped the idea of impeding the tram extensions – see:

http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/news/Tories-promise-impede-tram-extension/ article-1156678-detail/article.html

The effect of this, as discussed in earlier emails, is almost certainly that the project will go ahead, with construction expected in the period 2011-2014.

You can find a discussion of what happens next here in my earlier update:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/490

Note that I plan to organise a walk-in discussion with NET in Beeston in September for everyone who has individual issues they'd like to raise.

As I said before the County election, I think the Conservatives were naughty in soliciting votes on the basis of opposing the tram, since it was pretty clear that they wouldn't really stop the project. That said, in fairness I'm glad they've not kept everyone in limbo for months and have actually made a decision.

2. Why are we in Afghanistan?

The continuing tragic flow of casualties has prompted many people to ask what we're trying to achieve in Afghanistan, and why all the major parties are still supporting our involvement there. I thought it might be helpful to summarise the position as I see it.

The genesis of the war is that the Taleban, when in power, acted as willing hosts to terrorist groups operating around the world. The attacks on 9/11 are the best-known case, but there were many others. A sitting Government has many opportunities to assist terrorism, both through its diplomats and embassies around the world and by providing secure training and weapon manufacturing facilities at home. The nearest historical parallel is perhaps the old pirate states on the Mediterranean, who provided bases for marauding ships across the entire sea area. Ironically, the West had a lot to do with the rise of the Taleban, since during the Cold War we systematically armed the fundamentalists and helped them undermine the old Soviet-backed secular regime.

After 9/11, a very broad coalition of countries decided that this was intolerable, and a US-led coalition with UN endorsement intervened and installed the Taleban's old enemies, the Northern Alliance, in power. The Taleban were driven into the remote border area next to Pakistan, and gradually established a strong presence in Pakistan itself. There are around 20 countries with troops in the coalition, though the fighting is overwhelmingly being done by US and British troops, with other countries (whose troops are less trained in counter-insurgency) patrolling and keeping the peace in the less contested provinces.

Afghanistan has since had free and fair-looking elections, and the Parliament has a very varied range of MPs from fundamentalists to feminists to communists, but the dominant power remains with the warlords of the old Northern Alliance. Corruption remains common, as does opium production in the hinterland (the problem in stopping this is that it drives the farmers into the arms of the Taleban – one can fight drugs or terrorism but it's hard to fight both at once).

The current flow of casualties is mostly because the coalition has taken the war to the remote Taleban-controlled areas, deliberately coinciding with an effort by the Pakistani government to crack down on their side of the border. As in any offensive, losses are much higher than if one remains in defensive positions, but the hope is to neuter the Taleban as a long-term threat.

The reason why it still has the support of all parties (and indeed of virtually all countries – even Iran) is simply that the alternative appears to be to allow the Taleban to win, in which case we will in due course be fighting their sponsored groups here instead of fighting them there. The Karzai government is clearly not ideal, but unlike the Taleban it's not assisting anyone in planting bombs in Britain and elsewhere, and that's an important difference.

My personal view is that this is right as far as it goes, and I don't favour suddenly pulling out, but by agreeing to play such a major role we are letting the rest of the coalition too much off the hook. We should, in keeping with the general scaling back of our global ambitions that I argued for recently, set a reasonable limit on our involvement, and invite our allies to fill the gap as needed. They have the same interest as we do in preventing a terrorist state from re-emerging.

3. Mobile numbers directory

There is a considerable row brewing over the new 118 800 service, which is a private initiative offering the same sort of directory enquiries that services like 118 500 offer for land lines. There's no legal reason why they can't do this (mobiles are no more `secret' than landlines) but as with landlines they're required to allow opt-outs. In principle you can do that by going to

http://www.118800.co.uk

and following the instructions, but the site claims `technical difficulties' and says they won't accept more opt-outs until the service is up and running. This is unacceptable, in my view – they should not offer the service until people have had the chance to opt out, and really they ought to be on an opt-in basis. They've collected the numbers from all the companies we've bought stuff from over the years and gave our mobiles as contact numbers without ticking a box about "I do not wish you to pass this number to reliable third parties".

I expect to be criticising this in Parliament. In the meantime, if you start getting spam calls or texts, check the website and it should allow you to opt out. If not, please tell me.

4. Rights, responsibilities and help for (ex-)council tenants

A good many issues that arise in my surgeries relate to the large former council estates around the borough, most of which are now owner-occupied but which still put a good many people close together. Many current and former tenants aren't clear what help they can get when problems arise.

If you are a Broxtowe Borough council housing tenant or leaseholder who has exercised their right to buy, then you're invited to a conference that the council has organised to discuss your needs, on Tuesday 21st July 2009 between 10.00am and 3.30pm at the Town Hall in Foster Avenue. There is a free goody bag for the first 20 residents that arrive as well as a free prize draw for everyone who attends with three prizes of £25, £15 & £10 in Argos vouchers.

The theme is `tenancy sustainability' , which means helping residents to solve problems and issues to ensure they enjoy a long and happy tenancy in their homes. The conference will include a range of speakers from housing services covering supported housing, repairs, anti-social behaviour and allocations. Framework Housing Association will also be speaking about the floating support they provide to help residents maintain their tenancies. There will be various information stalls from across the Council and other agencies, such as Citizens' Advice Broxtowe, Castle College, Job Centre Plus and the Fire Service. This annual conference brings residents and employees together to provide the opportunity for them to increase their knowledge of the service, learn how the service may be of help to them as well as offer the chance to talk directly with employees. The conference is free to attend and transport can be arranged and light refreshments will be provided. For further details contact Claire Newton on 0115 917 3616.

5. Local events

Beeston North FunDay

Barbara Carr asks me to mention this: it's at Carwood Rd, Beeston North on 18th July. 11am to 3pm. Various bouncy castles, barbecue etc. Aim is raise funds for Lowes Estate Residents Association, whose aim is to fund a day out for local elderly residents and families on low incomes etc.

Jill Burn asks me to report more Big Lumch events on Sunday July 19 (see previous email for discussion of the Big Lunch – basically the idea is that we go all continental and have a party in the street with our neighbours):

Chilwell Eat Well are organising a community picnic on Inham Nook Recreation Ground from 12-3pm. The invitation is for everyone to bring their own picnic and something to sit on plus games to play (optional). Broxtowe Borough Council are providing access to the toilets and extra rubbish collection.

Also three street parties:
Long Lane Attenborough
Denison Street Beeston

The Community Garden in Beeston Fields are also hosting a Big Lunch.

Best wishes

Nick

The coming General Election - would you like to help?

5 July 2009

Hi all –

This one is going to be less non-partisan than usual, though it won't be negative either. I want to look ahead to the coming General Election, and announce the launch of two support groups of a type that I believe are entirely new to British politics and perhaps are an early sign of a less party-based age: "Independents for Palmer" and "Conservatives for Palmer".

If that doesn't interest you, though, skip down for news of my private member's Bill for pets in sheltered accommodation, the week's events, with a carnival and a sponsored swim next Saturday, and then a reminder of the important consultation on housing development – if you care about our Green Belt, please read that.

1. The coming General Election

There's a good deal of demoralisation in Parliament at the moment, with over 100 MPs over all parties standing down – some in disgrace, some because they were going to retire anyway, some because the poisonous media climate has made them tire of the job.

I'm not one of them. I think working as an MP, if you do it right, is one of the best things you can do with your life. Every small improvement you bring about in Parliament affects tens of thousands, perhaps millions, of people. Meanwhile, locally, you can make a huge difference to individual lives and small businesses.

I like to think I do a decent job both in Broxtowe and in Westminster, and if you allow me to, I'd be honoured to carry on doing it. But it depends very much on the `Rainbow Coalition' of support that I've built up over the years – people who usually vote Labour, Conservative, LibDem, Green, UKIP or not at all, but who at General elections vote to keep me as the local MP. The result last time was this:

For me: 20,457 votes (42 %)
Conservatives 18,161 (37 %)

LibDems 7,837 (16 %)
Far-right parties (Veritas, UKIP) 1,245 (2.6%)
Greens 896 (2 %)
Independent 170 (0%)

On the same day, there were local elections, where the combined Labour vote was over 6,500 lower – in other words, nearly a third of my support came from people who actually voted for another party in the local elections. This was actively encouraged in some cases, with a LibDem leaflet in Beeston North noting that you could vote for Steve Carr there and for me at the General Election.

More recently, Tom Ruffin, who was a LibDem councillor in Stapleford, wrote last week,

"As a former Liberal Democrat councillor I normally vote LibDem, but in this close election Nick needs our support to stop the Tory candidate from winning."

Quite a few people tell me they feel a dilemma about the coming election. They aren't, for various reasons, satisfied with the current Labour government, but they feel I do a good job as their MP.
This is where the new groups come in.

They are (I think) the first time this idea has been seen anywhere in Britain, though common in other countries where people are traditionally more open to voting for individuals than parties (e.g. nobody thought it odd in the US that there was a `Republicans for Obama' group). They're for people who recognise that there may well be a change of government nationally, but who still would like me to represent them. Whether the next Prime Minister is Labour or Conservative, the Government is still going to need to be held to account in a positive, intelligent way, and Broxtowe is still going to need good local leadership.

Professor Paul Roberts, who is heading the Independents for Palmer group, explains why:

"Nick Palmer is an accessible MP who works tirelessly for his constituents. He takes a keen interest in local issues, and is equally well-informed on current national debates and world events. His judgement is sound, and rooted in broadly-based experience of life. I have never been a member of any political party, but at the next election I will be voting for Nick to continue working for Broxtowe residents of all political persuasions and none."

Russell Whiting, who set up Conservatives for Palmer, puts it like this:

"I joined the Conservative Party on my 15th birthday and have campaigned for them ever since. When I moved to Nottingham I had correspondence with both Nick and his opponent Anna Soubry, and I have found Nick to be the more positive, open, honest, and responsive of the two. I will continue to support the Conservative Party on a national basis, but will support, and vote for Nick Palmer in Browtowe."

Another supporter, former Conservative councillor Michael Ridge wrote in the Beeston Express after the abortion debate, "In an age where so many are suspicious of politicians, we should give credit when it is due. Dr Palmer's positive approach to this deeply controversial legislation and his indefatigabile work should renew our confidence in the people we elect to serve us at Westminster. " – like Russell, he's supporting the Conservatives nationally but encouraging people here to support me.

Bill Davis MBE and his wife Dorothy just say crisply: "We would normally vote Conservative, but quite frankly as Nick Palmer seems to be one of the very few honest MPs with regard to the appalling expenses scandal, we are going to vote for him."

What about you? Over the coming months, I hope to build up both my Labour support base and to continue to reach out to supporters of other parties. I will be vastly out-spent by my Conservative opponent (who has £125,000 dedicated to Broxtowe from Baron Ashcroft and another wealthy businessman in addition to local resources): you can expect them to deluge you with glossy leaflets and pseudo-personalised letters. They are, however, short of local helpers on the ground. Conversely, I rely on help to deliver newsletters and leaflets by hand, and on the network of friendships and support that I've built up over the years. It'll be an interesting match!

What do I stand for? I've been a member of the Labour Party for 40 years, and I stand by my ideals: it is, in my view, a noble cause which sometimes goes astray. But beyond that I stand for a positive and constructive approach to politics that seems to me sadly in short supply in Parliament these days. Whether the Government is Labour or Conservative, if you re-elect me I will try to stick to that spirit.

I've written many things to this email group over the years, but the clearest statement of my philosophy and background was this one a couple of years ago:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxtoweInfo/message/362

Why write about the election now? Because elections aren't won or lost in a few weeks, but over months of hard preparation. Whatever your normal party preference, I hope that you may want to give me your support. Feedback welcome – and if you'd like to help with leaflet delivery or in other ways, please let me know.

2. A right to pets in sheltered housing

As you may have seen on TV, I'll be introducing a Bill this week to propose that residents in sheltered housing and, where possible, care homes, should be given the option to have a pet, subject to practical considerations.

Moving home is always stressful, but moving out of your family into sheltered accommodation or care can be one of the most traumatic moments in life. You're giving up your independence – probably for good – and you're leaving behind the home that may have most associations with your life.

In Britain, unlike many other countries, we often add an extra element to the agony. We put a ban on bringing in any kind of pet. An elderly cat who sleeps all day? No. A budgerigar? No. In some cases, not even a goldfish. So not only are you leaving your former life behind, but you're having to give up a companion who may mean a great deal to you – and you may have to choose between having them put down or put into a rescue shelter.

Why? Well, there are practical issues to consider. It's argued that someone might trip over the animal. But then, they might trip over a chair too – should we ban chairs? In any case, it might be that pets will be kept out of the shared areas, in case some residents have allergies. More seriously, there's a question of who pays any vets' bills, and what happens if the owner becomes too ill to look after the pet. It's reasonable that these issues are discussed and arrangements made in advance. Especially in sheltered housing complexes, where residents normally have self-contained flats, though, it's hard to see there being any insuperable difficulties.

The most telling point is that practice varies enormously. The Cinnamon Trust, who specialise in this area, have a list of 500 homes who do let residents have animals, including Elm House in Beeston, which I visited this week. Many who do not seem to be just suiting their own convenience – it's one less thing to think about. What my Bill is about is requiring sheltered complex and home managers to accept animals unless there is a specific reason why a particular animal would be unsuitable. It has wide all-party support, including David Blunkett, Ann Widdecombe and Evan Harris, and I hope to see it adopted by the parties in manifestos for the coming election.

3. Event news

Beeston Carnival: Saturday 11th July. Bands in Beeston Square from 103 (in aid of Macmillan Cancer Care), plus clog dancer, plus carnival princess crowning. Broadgate Park festival from 12. Parade sdtarts at Foster Avenue at 1. Call Lynda and pat Llaly on 0115-9223823 if you'd like details, or just come and enjoy it.

Splash 2009, The Annual Hemlockstone Lions Club Open Fund Raising Evening, Bramcote Baths - Saturday 11th July 2009, 06.30 p.m. to 08.00 p.m. This is a large sponsored swim for charity – the idea is that you swim as many lengths as you can, in front of a cheering audience, and get friends to sponsor you for charity. Contact grahamharvey3@ yahoo.co. uk for details.

4. Development consultation – less than a month to go

Last but not least, don't forget that the consultation on future home building plans is still running, and although the current economic conditions make early development unlikely, the decisions taken now will determine where development happens up to 2026. To take an analogy, the recent Tesco approval has its roots in the planning zones designated some eight years ago, but people didn't spot the implications back then. In particular, if you don't want the green Field Farm site, extending north up to Bilborough College, concreted over during the coming years, now is the time to say so, and even if you don't want to bother with every bit of the discussion I do encourage you to submit a comment on this. See

http://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=5730

for the consultation – the deadline for replies is July 31.

Best wishes,

Nick

The Tram (north and south!)/constitutional reform/a galaxy of local events

27 June 2009

Hi all –

Time to catch up with things beyond the expenses issue that's dominated the news. First a quick warning. We're all used to hoax emails saying there's a horrible virus around that will destroy our hard disks and eat our children if we open the next email. It's always worth checking such lurid warning in Google with the word "hoax". But there are genuine viruses out there, of course, and a current one is an apparently spontaneous offer from Microsoft to upgrade Outlook. This is a fake: it inserts phishing software to pick up your banking details. Pass it on!

1. The tram

There's been a good deal of uncertainty since the Conservatives won the County election on a platform which included stopping the tram, but immediately afterwards indicated that they might be having second thoughts. An expected application to redevelop Beeston Square was put on hold, and it appeared that we might be back in limboland for some time while the situation was clarified.

Consequently, I asked to see the new County leader, Kay Cutts, for a non-partisan discussion, and we had a friendly conversation yesterday. As I understand it, there are really two issues:

a) Will the County be official co-promoters partners in the tram project and withhold the financial contribution?
b) Will they prevent the project from going ahead by refusing to go ahead with the previously-agreed land exchanges?

Part a) is not actually that significant: the County's share of the cost if they're official co-promoters is just 5%, and much of that is recovered by Section 106 agreements with developers along the projected routes (if the tram goes ahead there is likely to be a major housing development on the Rushcliffe route, and the developer contributes to infrastructure such as the tram). If the County pulls out, the Section 106 money goes to the city instead and they can use it to fill the gap.

Part b) is crucial, though – the County owns part of the projected route and if they refused to allow it to be used, that would put the project in jeopardy.

Kay Cutts told me that the position was that the County majority were still against the tram, but they believed that they could not properly obstruct it going ahead without legal challenge, so it was likely to happen (unless the Workplace Parking Levy was rejected, which I think is unlikely). I said that, whatever the decision, local people would really appreciate clarity soon, so that we all know where we stand and other investment was not held in limbo. I also suggested that, even if the County decided not to be official co-sponsors, they might like to participate in the package to help Chilwell shops along the route with the transition.

Coincidentally, there is a statement today in the Evening Post from a list of major local employers (the two universities, the two hospitals, Castle College and several more) urging that the project be allowed to go ahead. I think it will, and we should know finally within the next 3 months at the latest.

Meanwhile, there has been further progress on the tentative idea of an extension of the tram from Phoenix Park to Kimberley and perhaps Eastwood. In the very long run, one could imagine the loop being completed with an extension through Ilkeston and Trowell back to Bardills. I discussed this with Kimberley Cllr Richard Robinson and council transport planners in March, and had positive feedback from members of Kimberley Town Council as well as Glenis Wilmott MEP, who may be able to support an application for European funding..

Now a number of Kimberley residents are signalling their support for this project and have identified a possible route which has been walked by a number of experts who see it as a possibility.

The residents have now arranged a walk on Monday July 6 along the route, followed by a public meeting to launch a group to support this proposal and hope for support from all political parties. The arrangements are:

Meet 5pm Phoenix Park tram stop. Walk to the Nelson and Railway at Kimberley along a suggested route (stout shoes recommended since it's obviously off-road). Public meeting at the Nelson and Railway 7.30pm (food available beforehand). T1 Phoenix flyer bus back to Phoenix Park. Any local resident is more than welcome to join in the walk and/or the meeting. For more details contact Richard on Richard.Robinson@ broxtowe. gov.uk .

I should stress that this is really early days – if it happens, I'd be surprised to see it actually running before 2020, and there would countless discussions about the most suitable route and the availability of funding. But a precondition for it being seriously considered at all would be feasibility and local interest, so this exploratory exercise is significant.

2. Constitutional reform

There's a consensus in Parliament that we shouldn't just clean up the current expenses mess and put in safeguards for the future, but ought to take the opportunity to reform the way Parliament works. The objective is partly to make decision-making clearer so that the public can see decisions coming and how to influence them, and partly to strengthen the role of backbench MPs, especially through the Select Committee system.

The Government has set up an all-party Constitutional Reform Commission to report by the autumn. Normally the membership of these commissions is selected by the party leaders, but in the spirit of the idea we decided on the Labour side to have an unwhipped election by backbenchers. I put my name forward, partly because I've experience of politics in three other countries so can introduce ideas that work elsewhere, and was elected with the support of 75 MPs as one of our participants.

We've started off with a revolt, as the terms of reference were quite narrow (select committees and private members' bills), and we want to tackle the process for Government legislation as well: the Leader of the House has agreed to look at extending the remit to that. If you have ideas for how you'd like to see Parliament working better, let me know and I'll keep them in mind as we work.

3. Home repair help

I'm grateful to Beating-Drum, a friend in Beeston, for pointing out this little-known council scheme, which may be of interest to many of you who have elderly or disabled relatives on limited incomes:

http://www.broxtowe.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=13964&p=0

4. Local events

JULY 4 10am-4pm Garden party for Cancer Research UK, David and Kath Jenkins, 21A Grasmere Rd, Beeston, 0115-9257356. £1 gets you coffee/tea and biscuits, and there will be plants, bric-a-brac, cakes, tombola and a raffle.

JULY 4 also, 11am-4pm, Beeston Community Celebration Event at Roundhill School, Foster Avenue – this has everything from face-painting to African drumming to Chinese lion-dancing (what? Dunno – but we'll find out!) to Derbyshire well dressing (? likewise!) to Kwik Cricket to brush painting to origami. There's also a youth event in Beeston Square with activities and performances for the young.

JULY 4 also, 2.30-4.30pm Christchurch Hall Pre-school are holding an American-themed (it's Independence Day when they decided to see us off) Fun Day with lots of games, face painting, tombola, raffle, bouncy castle, BBQ and stocks with a teacher in to pelt with sponges! Venue: Christchurch Hall, Lime Grove Avenue, Chilwell NG9
4AR. Entrance 50p for adults, free for children. All proceeds are going towards raising funds to create a garden and improve the outside play area for the Pre-school, which is a registered charity.

All in all it's quite a day for Beeston and Chilwell - why not start with the garden party and then check out the other events from 11?

JULY 19: THE BIG LUNCH. This is actually a national project launched by The Eden Project (thank to local green activist Jeff Buck for pointing it out) and supported by too many organisations to name – it's an invitation for us to go all continental and un-British and have lots of street parties and enjoy the community spirit, and there are all kinds of spin-offs such as youth events and film-making projects. See http://www.thebiglunch.com/ for more and contact nottsbiglunch@ live.co.uk for local events, or see Facebook's Big Lunch Nottinghamshire. You'd be wise to anticipate some street closures that day.

Finally, for idle amusement at my expense, a nearly-egg-on– face anecdote. You remember the scene in The 39 Steps where Richard Hannay dashes into a hall, pursued by villains, and is taken to be the guest speaker, so has to make an instant speech on free trade? Well, I had an obscure note in my diary the other day: "citizens' rights discussion, committee room 16″, but couldn't remember what it was. Hmm, I thought, may as well go along and see. I got there to find anxious-looking people outside.

"There he is! You're just on!"

"Er, what?"

"You've got 20 minutes for your introductory speech - Shami will speak after you."

Yes - a 2-hour discussion with Shami Chakrabati on ID cards, DNA, and other IT-liberty-related issues, in front of a packed audience of IT and liberty campaign specialists. It was arranged months ago and I'd completely forgotten. Eeek. Fortunately I'd given a similar talk at the Sorbonne two weeks earlier so I wasn't tongue-tied, and Shami and I found more common ground than I'd have expected, so it turned out fine.

Best regards

Nick

Euro-election result in Broxtowe

7 June 2009

Hi -

Very briefly as I've written lots this week and this was going to be a light weekend for me, but some of you may be interested:

Broxtowe had the highest turnout in the East Midlands (possibly the highest in Britain, but we'll have to see) at 47%, and one of the lowest drops in Labour support (just -3%). As in other places in the East Midlands, UKIP dropped behind Labour and LibDems into fourth, most of their Euro-vote shifting back to the Tories as the Kilroy factor disappeared: the BNP and Greens also picked up a bit.

Totals (rounded to nearest whole number):

Con 32% (+6), Lab 19% (-3), LD 17% (+2), UKIP 15% (-9), BNP 9% (+2), Green 7% (+1).

While I'm here, a plug for...

Garden Party on Saturday 13th June, at 7 North Drive Chilwell, Nottingham (in between Park Road and Grove Avenue). 10am - 5pm it is in aid of Hayward House Hospice . We will be having Live music, Local artists work for sale. Plant sale, Tombola Homemade cakes and refreshments, Children's workshops.. Admission £1.50 ( children under 10 free).

Next time, I hope to have updates on Tesco and Beeston centre issues and on the open-cast threat.

Good night!

Nick

Hemlock Happening CANCELLED

6 June 2009

Just a quick note to let you know. Bad weather has led to the cancellation, on advice due to safety issues.

Nick

Election results summary

5 June 2009

Hi all -

Just a quick and slightly sleepy update with the Broxtowe results. I'll be discussing the wider national issues on the Today programme on Radio 4 tomorrow at 830ish.

Broadly, the picture was a huge slump in turnout almost everywhere, especially affecting Labour here as elsewhere. The Labour vote in every electoral division fell; so, interestingly, did the Conservative vote, with a single exception (Beeston South and Attenborough, where it rose by 5 votes). Only one seat in the constituency changed hands and it was that one: Labour's vote fell just 2% here, but it was enough for a Tory majority of 189, so Eric Kerry took the seat from Pat Lally.

The other nail-biter was Nuthall, where the absence of Labour and LibDem candidates enabled Independent Sue Wildey to put on over 600 votes, but Conservative councillor Philip Owen dropped just 143 votes, enabling him to squeeze home by 1752 to 1741 after threee recounts.

Everyone else was confirmed in the previous seats that their parties held, with the LibDems gaining Eastwood in neighbouring Ashfield constituency. Contrary to expectations, the smaller parties failed to make significant headway, the best result being UKIP's 786 in Toton and Chilwell (a quarter of the winning Tory score).

You can see the full results for your area here:

http://www.nottinghamshire.gov.uk/home/your_
council/councilelections/electionresults.htm

Congratulations to the winners (and to Notts Conservatives who look poised to take control of the County), commiserations to the losers,
and at a personal level I'd say that in particular to Pat Lally, a
hard-working councillor who lost his seat due (in my view) to
annoyance with events in Westminster over which he had no control:
some of his voters abstained or voted Green in protest, and it
was just enough to lose.

I've also been asked to pass on these snippets:

COSSALL OPEN GARDENS SUN JUNE 14 1-5pm. in your next email letter. An annual event to raise essential funds to help maintain our ancient church and old school hall.

CHILWELL COLLEGE HOUSE CARNIVAL 20th June 1.30pm-5pm
College House Junior School, Cator Lane
Adults £1, Under 12's 50p
Sorry, no dogs

Birds of Prey, Climbing Tower, Car Boot Sale, BBQ, Strawberries &
Cream, Refreshments, Toys, Bric-Brac, Games, Tombola, Children's Rides.

Apart from the radio interview, a surgery and the Hemlock Happening tomorrow, I plan to put my feet up for a non-political weekend after quite a lively fortnight, so please forgive any slightly delayed responses!

Best regards

Nick

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